I understood this while preparing for the Project Management Institute certification. When it comes to producing good estimates, I've found that there are a few key flaws or traps we can fall into. Although being aware of these ahead of time can assist the PM and team in avoiding them, it does not guarantee that you will produce an accurate estimate. I've compiled a list of the top five that I believe are the most prevalent.
1. Weak requirements.
All future work on the project is built on the foundation of good, full requirements. It's difficult – if not impossible – to produce an end product that the client will accept without good criteria. It's also practically hard to predict the amount of work that will be done on the project precisely. You can put up a fantastic estimate based on the needs you have, but if those requirements are inadequate or missing, your estimate is useless.
2. Too much optimism.
If you continually base your estimates on the best-case scenario, you'll be startled when you discover your project is consistently over budget. Risks and challenges arise; certain jobs take longer than anticipated, and customer issues can often hold things down. If you continually expect for things to go perfectly, you'll be irritated by estimation failures time and time again.
3. Padding for the just-in-case scenario.
Similarly, over-planning for the "what ifs" can be detrimental. Overly conservative estimates give the impression to the consumer that the vendor is greedy, which will not gain you or your team any praise or confidence. The easiest method to develop excellent estimates is to make real estimates based on what you know right now and what you believe is likely to happen (with a certain degree of confidence). Make a list of any assumptions you have about what may or may not happen. As learned while preparing for the Project Management Institute certification - don't over-plan for things that may or may not happen. It's a horrible strategy.
4. Not considering risks.
When it comes to estimating efforts, it's a terrible idea to ignore those hazards that you meticulously recognised early in the project. Some will happen, but not all. And, when estimating project work, it's advisable to assume that at least some of these may produce problems for your project - especially the ones you thought had a high chance of happening. Make your estimations as realistic as possible - it doesn't benefit anyone if you and your team are too optimistic...or pessimistic...with your estimates. Make an effort to strike the appropriate balance.
5. Rushing it.
Look out if someone approaches you and says, "Give me a ballpark figure by the end of the day" with the caveat, "Don't worry, I won't hold you to it." Almost usually, this means danger. Estimates should never be rushed. It's one thing to give an estimate for something you've done a hundred times. However, if you need some time to think about it, don't let them pressure you. Because you will almost certainly be held to it. Take care.
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